The 21st Century Business Herald learned from the authorities of the Development and Reform Commission that the National Development and Reform Commission is organizing a press conference on the afternoon of December 19 to announce the launch of the national carbon market.
Before the press conference, a video teleconference on the initiation of the national carbon emissions trading system will also be held. Zhang Yong, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, will attend the meeting and will mobilize and deploy the nationwide carbon emissions trading market construction plan (Power Industry).
Li Gaozeng, Director of the Climate Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at the press conference on October 31 that he insists on positioning the carbon market as a policy tool for controlling greenhouse gas emissions and avoid excessive speculation and avoidance of excesses during the operation of the carbon trading system. Financial derivatives.
Even if only included in the power industry, China's carbon market will exceed the EU as the world's largest carbon market. According to data from the China Carbon Forum, the total amount of CO2 emissions that the power industry will be included in the national carbon emissions trading market is estimated to be 3.5 billion tons, accounting for 74% of the total emissions in the industry. Since the industry's carbon dioxide emissions account for a relatively large proportion of the total emissions in the country, even if the first batch of carbon emissions trading markets in the country are only included in the power generation/heating industry, the carbon dioxide emissions covered by the carbon market will account for 39% of the country's total emissions.
In the various greenhouse gas emission reduction policies implemented in China, carbon pricing has great potential for emission reduction. The modeling analysis conducted by the National Strategy Research Center for Climate Change and the International Cooperation Center (NSCS), the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission (ERI) and the Energy Innovation Institute shows that by 2030, carbon pricing will be implemented (at a price of RMB 63/year). In the case of tons, the carbon emissions will be reduced by 27.49% compared with the normal business-as-usual reference scenario.
However, although the carbon emissions trading system will play a role, it is not a panacea. The study also pointed out that China must implement other complementary policies in order to achieve the climate goals.
The market carbon price of China's carbon trading pilots fluctuates, but it stays at around 30 yuan per ton for most of the time. Jiang Zhaoli, deputy director of the Department of Climate Change at the National Development and Reform Commission, previously said that carbon prices will reach 200-300 yuan per ton after 2020. Before that, companies cannot feel real pressure.
At the end of 2011, China approved the pilot projects for carbon emissions trading in seven provinces and cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Hubei, and Chongqing. These pilots have been incorporated into power, steel, cement, and other industries, and nearly 3,000 key emission units have laid the foundation for the nation's carbon market. As of September 2017, the cumulative quota volume reached 197 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, or about 4.5 billion yuan. The total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in the pilot area showed a double decrease trend.
Then, what impact will the launch of the national carbon market have on power companies? Zhang Junjie, director of the Environmental Research Center at Duke Kunshan University in Kunshan, once analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald. The first was the impact on power generation costs. The implementation of carbon emission reduction by power generation enterprises will inevitably increase costs, including carbon costs, technology costs, and management costs.
The second is affecting power generation behavior. The amount and method of allocation of carbon emission quotas for power companies will directly affect their power generation behavior, and companies need to adjust their production according to carbon prices.
The third is to influence the energy structure. The carbon market will promote power generation companies to adjust their energy structure and tend to use renewable energy to generate electricity.
The fourth is to promote power generation companies to carry out technological innovations. The pressure of carbon emission reduction will promote the introduction and research and development of high-efficiency and low-coal-consuming units, and increase the efficiency of power generation.
Fifth, changes in the power supply structure will have a certain impact on the planning and layout of the power grid. From the perspective of electricity supply, carbon trading helps to promote the decarbonization and cleanliness of power supply structure, and at the same time promotes the deployment of power supply to areas where renewable energy is concentrated in the west or where restrictions on carbon emission are relatively relaxed. From the perspective of electricity demand, the implementation of carbon trading will increase the energy consumption costs of industrial enterprises, promote regional economic restructuring, shift energy-intensive industries to low-cost regions, and change the situation of electricity supply and demand. With the change of power supply structure and power supply and demand pattern, it has a certain impact on the planning and layout of the power grid.
He reminded that the power sector needs to pay attention to the instability of the power supply: the start of the national carbon market will increase the pressure of power companies to reduce emissions, and the current control over the price of electricity leads to market failure, and the carbon regulatory cost that companies face cannot be transferred through electricity prices. , which will affect its power supply decisions. In addition, due to the low degree of marketization of electricity prices, the carbon market may have weaker incentives to reduce emissions.